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1 Voto(i)
get new one
Anna v says:
1) Temperatures do not follow IPCC projections. Here is a plot to remind this:
You might ask how they have aligned the predictions and the data, since this doesn't agree with plots in the literature (such as that shown in Chapter 1 of the IPCC AR4 or in this paper in Science: ). Also note that there the model predictions are basically the forced component, i.e., not including “noise” due to El Nina / La Nina and the like, and the data for 2008 only includes the first half of the year (which was considerably colder than the second half). That's a lot of problems with one graph!
2) The fingerprint of CO2 in the tropical troposphere as set out in the AR4 report is absent in the data. Here are the links
for models:
data:
You've been hoodwinked if you believe that the “hotspot” in the tropical troposphere is a fingerprint of CO2. It has nothing to do with CO2. It is expected on basic physical principles regardless of the mechanism causing the warming (see here for a picture of what happens in a climate model if you increase the solar forcing instead of the greenhouse gas forcing: ) and is simply due to the fact that the temperature in the tropics is expected to closely follow the moist adiabat. And, the data that you show has severe known problems…and, in fact, various analyses and re-analyses of that data yield a whole plethora of results, some of which agree and some which disagree with the expectation of moist adiabatic lapse rate theory.
The real signature of greenhouse gas warming, as opposed to many other mechanisms like solar, is that solar has the stratosphere warming too whereas greenhouse gas forcing has the stratosphere cooling (which is in fact what it has been doing).
3) The oceans are cooling instead of warming and setting off a feedback loop of greenhouse warming:
The spin is: global warming missing heat. The truth is, nature does not follow the GCM IPCC models.
There is admittedly some mystery surrounding the ocean measurements…but some variability is expected and there have also been some measurement issues. (A group that initially reported cooling with the new ARGO floats had to retract their paper after they found an error.)
4) the specific humidity is not rising as it should in order to create the runaway feedback loop predicated in the models:
I am always amused how people are willing to take and plot some data that they don't even understand…and understand the potential problems with and then believe it over peer-reviewed science that concludes precisely the opposite. I recommend you read Brian Soden's work on this: (this paper notes the severe problems with the radiosonde measurements that I believe you are plotting in your link above) and also (And, lest you think Soden is biased because he is reaching a conclusion you don't like, I will point out that Soden is skeptical about the link between global warming and stronger hurricanes: ) There is also some recent work by Dessler: Dessler, A. E., Z. Zhang, and P. Yang (2008), Water-vapor climate feedback inferred from climate fluctuations, 2003–2008, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35 ( ).
The fact that all four of your statements (or at least 3 out of the 4) have severe problems to the point of being essentially wrong is a good reason why your opinion on the science differs so dramatically from the opinions of the IPCC, the NAS, the AAAS, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, etc.
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